Highlights
- Experts say a major earthquake in Bangladesh is long overdue, with Dhaka being the most vulnerable.
- A magnitude 7–9 quake could collapse over 100,000 buildings, especially in Old Dhaka.
- 76% of Dhaka’s roads are too narrow for rescue operations, according to Fire Service data.
- Geologists warn that the subduction zone from Sylhet to Cox’s Bazar is storing energy equivalent to an 8.2–9 magnitude quake.
The fear of a devastating earthquake looms large over Bangladesh, and no city stands more exposed than Dhaka. Over the past months, the country has felt several light to moderate earthquakes, including the recent 5.2-magnitude tremor that rattled Dhaka and other districts.
Experts say these frequent small shocks are not harmless—they are the early warnings of something far bigger.
Bangladesh sits at the intersection of three major tectonic plates: the Indian Plate, the Burma Plate, and the Eurasian Plate. This unique geography makes the region one of the world’s most dangerous seismic zones. Joint research by Columbia University and Dhaka University reveals that the subduction zone stretching from Sylhet to the Bay of Bengal is storing enough energy to unleash an 8.2 to 9.0-magnitude earthquake.
The last major earthquake on the Madhupur Fault happened in 1918. Before that, one struck in 1822. Every century, a powerful quake occurs in this region. The clock is ticking again.
Dhaka: The City Most Likely to Fall
Scientists, urban planners and the Fire Service all agree on one terrifying point:
Dhaka will suffer the most destruction. Why?
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The city’s urbanization is uncontrolled and unplanned.
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Many high-rise structures are poorly built.
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76% of Dhaka’s roads are narrow, making rescue operations nearly impossible.
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Old Dhaka is a death trap of congested lanes and fragile buildings.
A Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) and CDMP study in 2009 predicted that a magnitude-7 earthquake would collapse 72,000 buildings nationwide. But newer estimates are far worse.
Experts now believe that a magnitude-7 quake striking Dhaka directly could kill up to 300,000 people. Fire Service data shows more than 100,000 buildings could collapse if the quake reaches magnitude 9.
Read More: “Final Tremor Will Be Felt” – Mizanur Rahman Azhari Warns Citizens
Lt Col Mohammad Tajul Islam Chowdhury (Director, Fire Service & Civil Defence) said-
দশ-বারো বছরের মধ্যে যেকোনো সময় বড় ভূমিকম্প হবে। বড় ধরনের ভূমিকম্প হলে, ‘পুরান ঢাকার চিত্র সবচেয়ে ভয়াবহ। কোন রেসকিউ অপারেশন চালানো যাবে না সেখানে উদ্ধার কাজ বন্ধ রেখে পরিত্যক্ত ঘোষণা করতে হবে।’
Translation:“We are getting repeated signs. Within the next 10–12 years, a major earthquake is likely. If a big quake hits, Old Dhaka will be the most catastrophic. Rescue operations may not even be possible. Some areas may have to be declared abandoned.”
He added that even fire stations may collapse, delaying emergency response.
Scientific Warnings Bangladesh Cannot Ignore
The Columbia–DU research indicates:
- The Sylhet–Cox’s Bazar subduction zone has not produced a major earthquake in 800–1,000 years.
- It is storing energy equivalent to an 8.2–9 magnitude earthquake.
- The last major quake in the southern part (Myanmar region) occurred in 1762, raising St Martin’s Island by three meters and causing mud volcano eruptions in Sitakunda.
Seismologists believe another massive rupture is overdue.
Why Dhaka Will Suffer the Worst
Dhaka’s vulnerability stems not from geography alone but from human decisions:
- High-rise buildings clustered like “a thorn in the neck,” as one expert described.
- Thousands of structures built without proper engineering. No proper building audit or retrofitting system.
- Narrow roads block ambulances, fire trucks and rescue teams.
- Huge population density: over 22 million people in the metropolitan area.
If a major quake hits, Old Dhaka may become uninhabitable.
What Needs to Happen Now
Experts unanimously agree on one point:
Earthquakes cannot be stopped, but their devastation can be reduced.
Immediate actions required:
- Strict enforcement of building codes Retrofitting of vulnerable structures
- Training of community volunteers Public awareness campaigns
- Modern rescue equipment National preparedness drills
- Use of updated seismic maps Evacuation planning for Old Dhaka
Bangladesh has no early warning system for earthquakes. Preparedness is the only defense. Bangladesh stands at a dangerous crossroads. Scientists, government officials and disaster management experts are all sounding the same alarm:
A massive earthquake is coming no one knows when, but it will come. Dhaka, with its fragile infrastructure and chaotic urban planning, is at the epicenter of risk. The time for denial is over. The time for preparation is now. If Bangladesh does not act quickly, the human cost could be unimaginable.
Source: The report
